BE CAREFUL WHAT YOU WISH FOR…

Did nominating Peter Knapp at the Democrat caucus mean that Kate Edinger will lose in November?

An old saying… To see the future, look to the past.

Four years ago Edinger won by a fluke. Back then, as now, Peter Knapp was cross endorsed by the Democrats and also got the Republican nomination. Tom Fox was the other Republican on the ticket. Therefore we had Knapp twice, Edinger and Fox. The voters could vote for any two. Knapp got a little over 200 on the Republican and a little over 100 on the Democrat side. That was the lowest numbers (per party) of any candidate that year. Knapp's vote total was a little over 300 which edged out Fox. Fox got more than Knapp on the Republican side but less than Edinger. Why? Usually any Republican will get an automatic 225 base votes and any Democrat will get an automatic 110 votes. These 'automatic' votes are from those that vote the party line and remains pretty constant. Knapp is not well liked and that is why he didn't even get the automatic vote. But why did Edinger get more than Fox? Four years ago the town was mad at Max Stoker for all the grief he and his wife caused. Nancy Dickerson, Democrat was running for Legislator against Stoker. We made a big push for Dickerson and Dickerson won Preble by 4 votes or so making Stoker a loser. (But Stoker got 12 more votes in Scott and carried the election.) The Dickerson win in Preble carried over to Edinger in what is known as coat tails. Edinger's vote count almost exactly matched Dickerson's. It would be truthful to say that it was our effort to get Dickerson elected that got Edinger elected! :-O

(For reference: Usually about 450 to 600 vote in these off-year elections.)

This year is different. While there is still the dislike for Peter Knapp for more reasons than Stoker and he will get a low vote count he 'may' get nominated on Monday. If that happens it will be a repeat of 4 years ago. It will be Knapp twice, Edinger and a Republican (who ever that turns out to be). BUT this time there is no Democrat running for Legislator therefore no coat tails. There will be a high negative vote for Knapp but the Republican also running will not have the negatives Knapp has. Also Edinger was part of the Water Protection fiasco and has done little to distinguish herself in the eyes of the voters. The remaining non-automatic votes will be divided between her and the Republican. She will lose.

Oddly the only chance Edinger has is if Knapp is NOT nominated on Monday. But the real kicker is who nominated Knapp at the Democrat caucus and who voted for him there. I won't tell you but I bet you can guess.

Ain't payback a bitch?

But what about the other town board positions open? These are for 2-year terms to finish the terms of two who resigned and are separate from the 4-year positions. They have the same name but that is all. You can't mix and match. Right now we have Grant and Morse on the Democrat side and Monday's Republican caucus will decide the two who will run against them.

I love this stuff, real life drama right before your eyes. Beats TV any day.