My Opinion on Iowa

I suppose I could just keep my opinions to myself, I suppose so, but why should I? Everybody else has an opinion and is eager to share it so why not me? I'm a political junkie, I listen to talk radio, Laura sometimes and Rush most times. Sometime Savage and Heinreid in the evening. I watch Fox news at 6PM and sometimes after wards. I read a lot of stuff on the net from the New York Times to Drudge and much in-between. I read a lot of tech news and also watch a lot of the TechTV channel, mostly The Screensavers but sometimes other stuff. I also watch a lot of the Discovery channel and although I don't want to ride a motorcycle again, I like American Chopper. But mostly I just think about stuff while I work. I've been amazed how often what I conclude in my thinking comes true. I probably forget about the stuff that doesn't which gives me a one sided view of my prowess as a prognosticator. What all this comes down too is my thoughts on the dems at this point in time after the Iowa caucus. As a rep I really don't care who the dems pick and I'll never vote for a dem for President. And I have no control over who they pick so I'm just a watcher from afar. Sometimes it's worth a good laugh such as Deans screaming after his loss in Iowa or most any looney thing Clark says. But the point of all this is to tell you and make a record of it at the same time, of who I think will get the nod and why.

I think they will anoint Edwards as their nominee. I started to think this when they gave him the newspaper endorsement by the largest newspaper in Iowa. That stuff doesn't happen by chance, there was a reason behind it and I think the 'machine' has decided on Edwards. Machine? What machine? Both parties have a behind the scenes base that is highly influential in determining who is anointed. Mostly it is the money people who decide it. Or the people who control the money. For that reason I don't think they wanted Kerry or he wouldn't have had to borrow money on his house. They don't like Dean for any number of reasons but the main one is that Dean does not need their money. They can't like that and likely inflated his poll numbers in Iowa before the caucus so he would look like a big loser. His numbers were awfully high just a week before the caucuses compared to how he ended up. Too high to be real. I think they liked Clark in the beginning but he proved too flakey once they let him out in public and they decided to drop him. Lieberman and Gephardt would have been OK but neither caught on. That leaves Edwards and that suspicious newspaper endorsement and his high showing after everyone counted him out just a week before Iowa.

Am I right? I think so, but the telling will be what happens next Tuesday. If Edwards, who has a single digit poll number now, does well then I am right and he will go on and become their nominee. Will it matter? No, I don't think Bush can be beaten this time around. Everything is looking good for November, the economy will be doing very well, the Iraq war will be pretty settled by then, we may even catch OBL. What driving issue can the dems run on that would make people fire Bush? None that I can see. I predict that Bush will take the election with 58% of the vote. More if OBL is caught, more if someone like Nader enters the fray. With a max of 65% tops. While the country is evenly divided between dems and reps at about 40% each there are 20 to 25% unaffiliated and I think most of those will go with Bush. If you're a dem you won't like to hear that, but remember that Clinton won even with all the scandals mostly because things were going good and there was no good reason to fire him. People don't get rid of Presidents unless there is a good reason and I don't see anything substantial that would make people switch. Sorry if that bursts your bubble but this is my opinion after all, isn't it?